AI may eliminate 200,000 European banking jobs by 2030
European banks are preparing to cut more than 200,000 jobs by 2030 as artificial intelligence and digital banking reshape how the industry operates. The estimate, from an analysis of 35 major lenders by Morgan Stanley, suggests about 10 per cent of the current workforce is at risk as banks push to lower costs and boost efficiency. Together these banks employ roughly 2.12 million people, meaning the projected cuts would remove about 212,000 roles from the sector.
The largest impact is expected in central services and back-office roles, including risk management, compliance and internal operations, where much of the work involves data processing, document checks and routine reporting. Banks are rolling out AI tools to handle tasks such as reviewing spreadsheets, monitoring transactions and managing regulatory requirements, areas where software can work faster and more cheaply than humans. Many European lenders believe AI and wider digitalisation can deliver efficiency gains of up to 30 per cent, a key attraction at a time when investors are pressuring them to improve weak returns and reduce high cost-to-income ratios.
Lenders have already begun restructuring around these technologies, combining branch closures with automation to shift customers towards online and mobile channels. In November, Dutch bank ABN Amro announced plans to cut about a fifth of its full-time staff by 2028 as part of a digital transformation programme. French group Société Générale has also signalled deep changes ahead, with leadership making clear that no part of its operations is protected as it seeks to tackle a stubbornly high cost base.
Analysts say the changes could reshape Europe’s banking landscape, especially among consumer-focused banks in markets such as France and Germany, where expenses remain elevated. While some institutions have started to use AI in client-facing roles, for example in research and advisory support, the biggest financial impact is still expected to come from cutting internal roles and automating support functions. Other large banks, including UBS, are investing heavily in AI education for senior leaders as they prepare for wider deployment of the technology across their organisations.
At the same time, some executives warn that the drive to automate must not come at the cost of staff development and basic technical skills. Banks still need junior employees who can build cash flow models, understand valuation metrics and manage complex financial analysis, even as AI tools take over more routine tasks. How well lenders balance rapid cost-cutting with long-term talent development will help determine whether the shift to AI delivers sustainable gains rather than short-term savings that weaken the industry’s future workforce.
