US Tech Giants Plan $650 Billion AI Spending in 2026
U.S. technology companies are projected to invest approximately $650 billion in artificial intelligence infrastructure in 2026, a sharp increase from the $410 billion spent the previous year. The figure comes from an analysis by Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, shared with clients in early 2026.
Bridgewater co-chief investment officer Greg Jensen described the current stage of AI development as entering a more dangerous phase. Demand for computing power continues to outpace available supply, pushing the largest technology companies — commonly referred to as hyperscalers — to accelerate capital spending at a pace not previously seen in the industry.
To fund the surge in infrastructure costs, the four largest U.S. technology firms have already scaled back share buyback programs more aggressively than in prior years. The shift signals a strategic prioritization of long-term physical infrastructure over short-term returns to shareholders. Jensen warned that the scale of this spending creates serious downside risks if market conditions deteriorate or returns fail to materialize.
AI startups Anthropic and OpenAI face a narrower path forward. Both companies will need major product breakthroughs to secure the large funding rounds they require ahead of potential initial public offerings. Without a credible and visible route to significant profits, sustaining high valuations and justifying continued heavy capital demands will become increasingly difficult for both firms.
The wave of AI investment is also reshaping competitive dynamics across other industries. Software companies and data providers face growing disruption as AI-powered products begin to replace or reduce demand for traditional software services. A broad selloff in global software stocks in early 2026 reflected investor concern that rapid AI advancement poses structural threats to established software business models. Jensen noted that AI leaders can no longer satisfy investor expectations without generating what amounts to existential pressure on adjacent sectors.
From a macroeconomic perspective, Bridgewater estimates that technology investment added approximately 50 basis points to U.S. GDP growth in 2025. In 2026, that contribution could reach around 100 basis points, making the sector a meaningful driver of overall economic expansion. However, the spending surge is also expected to push up prices for technology and communications equipment and increase electricity costs in regions hosting large-scale AI data centers.
Jensen also raised the risk of a severe stock market correction, which could restrict the ability of technology companies to raise capital and slow the pace of AI development overall. He compared the scenario to the Dot-com bubble that collapsed in 2000, though he noted that recent market movements remain considerably smaller in scale. The combination of rising capital demands, market dependency, and sector-wide disruption marks what Bridgewater identifies as a pivotal and precarious turning point in the current AI investment cycle.
